Fossil Fuels and Aviation

I was on yet another airplane this week and it occurred to me that aviation is, at present, completely and totally dependent on fossil fuels.

Naturally curious I started doing some digging about oil futures etc. on line and it comes down to this (yes, I am paraphrasing in a BIG way)  The optimistic view is that the world's oil reserves will be gone in 40 years.  The pessimists say 20 years.  For arguments sake lets say that the earth's oil supply will be gone sometime in the next 30 years.

This will no doubt have a profound impact on, well, everything.

There are electric cars, boats, lawn mowers, etc.  But electricity is simply no solution for aviation.  An electric airplane?  So my conclusion is that Aviation's present methods of propulsion are doomed.  To my mind there are no alternatives.  When you think about the impact that will have on the global economy it really is difficult to contemplate.  Suffice it to say that it is an intimidating thing to ponder.

I'm no conspiracy theorist and I have always considered myself an optimist but this has one has me stumped and a bit concerned.

I think an obvious solution is rail.  The advances in rail travel continue to significant.  However there is no economically viable rail solution for crossing oceans.  Most modern rail systems, including the high speed rail systems in Europe and Asia, are electric.

I've blogged about using AutoCAD Civil 3D as a design tool for rail design so to all of you way-over-the-horizon thinkers who's job it is to do long term market predictions specific to civil engineering I say think rail - and use your frequent flyer miles while you can!

At least until someone has a moment of clarity about an alternative to kerosene for turbines and AVGAS for piston engine aircraft.  Hydrogen perhaps?  Hmm, remember the Hindenberg?

Comments

[Hert]

Maybe we will be able to "beam" ourselves anywhere - or maybe the Internet and Virtual Reality will be so advanced that we won't need to travel anywhere.... :-)

[ChristopherF]

The pessimists and optimists are both wrong, fossil fuels will never run out. Fossil fuels will just be too expensive to use and/or drill for and be replaced by other forms of energy (such as wind, solar and nuclear). The country used to be dependant on whale oil to light lamps before kerosene was used.

Wind and solar are still too expensive on a life cycle cost to be viable at this point and still require tax subsidies and/or government mandates for investors to invest in them.

[Roger Jochym]

"use your frequent flyer miles while you can!"

Not being a pessimist but scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii this past month have said that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.
The figures, published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on its website, also confirm that carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than expected.The annual mean growth rate for 2007 was 2.14ppm – the fourth year in the past six to see an annual rise greater than 2ppm. From 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has leapt to an average 2.1ppm.
Scientists say the shift could indicate that the Earth is losing its natural ability to soak up billions of tons of carbon each year. Climate models assume that about half our future emissions will be re-absorbed by forests and oceans, but the new figures confirm this may be too optimistic.

Knowing what we know now about fossil fuels and their detrimental effect on our atmosphere, it is unethical to encourage more plane flights.

[P1]

Years ago, my father, who worked at Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, worked on a team developing a nuclear engine for airplanes. Here is a pretty good link for some background: http://www.megazone.org/ANP/tech.shtml. It is interesting to read of the shielding problems (and to not read about the what happens during a crash).

There are always alternatives out there...

[John]

Just a quick question here...

what about Oil Shale? Due to the molecular composition (namely the hydrocarbon structure) it can't be converted into gasoline, but it can be converted into Kerosene and Jet-A (aviation jet fuel).

If the industry sorts out production issues (it would seem necessity would drive innovation there) we'd be ok for a little while... the US has the largest reserves of Oil Shale in the world.

Call me a skeptic, but I think we'll still see airplanes (and better!) in 60 years.

Just think about where we've come since Kitty Hawk NC 100 or so years ago...

[GIS Utilities]

Great post, very thought-provoking and insightful.Fossil fuels are a major part of the world today.They are a valuable source of energy, but if they are to be used in the future, better ways will have to be found to reduce the pollution they cause.
As energy sources are becoming scarce, different means and approaches are having to be sought in an attempt to conserve the remaining amounts of non-renewable energy sources for the future sustainability of our world.
regards
GIS@sbl